Global turmoil as oil crashes, stocks swing amid war

GLOBAL MARKETS DESK March 10, 2026

The world’s financial markets are behaving like a patient in intensive care. One minute the numbers look stabilising. The next, a new headline from the Middle East sends everything crashing again. Oil. Stocks. Bonds. Currency. Every asset class on earth is now hostage to a single question: how long will this war last?

Tuesday’s trading session delivered no clean answers. Only more volatility, more uncertainty, and more evidence that the global economy is being pushed toward a breaking point it was not prepared for.

Oil Swings Like Never Before in History

Nothing captures the scale of this moment better than what happened in the oil market on Monday. Global benchmark Brent fell as much as 11% before clawing back some losses, following a dramatic session that saw the biggest intraday price swing on record. NPR

That sentence deserves to be read slowly. The biggest intraday price swing in recorded history. Not in a decade. Not in a generation. Ever.

US crude tumbled to $88 after efforts to calm markets, following days of extreme volatility driven by the continuation of the war in Iran posing threats to global energy supplies. NPR

For context, crude oil was trading above $120 a barrel just days ago. The collapse came after signals that a ceasefire may be possible. But as of Tuesday, no ceasefire has materialised, and traders are treating every political statement from the region as a trading signal rather than reliable intelligence.

Saudi Aramco cautioned that extended shipping interruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could severely destabilize global oil markets, as the ongoing conflict in Iran continues to impact critical shipping routes, raising concerns among investors about supply security and wider economic consequences. NPR

Wall Street: A 30-Minute Miracle

Monday on Wall Street was a masterclass in the psychology of panic and relief, compressed into a single trading session.

S&P futures were down 2% at their lows before the cash session opened, but the index ended the day up 0.8%. That included a 1% gain in the last 30 minutes of trading, triggered when signals emerged that the Iran conflict was closer to the end than the beginning. CNN

Tuesday told a more cautious story. A rebound in US stocks stalled as a slide in oil failed to keep boosting risk appetite. While tech shares outperformed, traders were bracing for Oracle’s earnings, looking for clues on spending plans amid rising skepticism around artificial intelligence. NPR

Semiconductor stocks provided the strongest tailwind in Monday’s session, with Broadcom and AMD each surging more than 4.6%, while the energy sector faded as crude reversed. Cruise line stocks bore the brunt of early selling, with Carnival falling more than 6% and Norwegian dropping nearly 5%, both deep in correction territory for March. The Washington Post

Bonds, the Dollar, and the Fed’s Impossible Dilemma

Behind the stock market headlines, a subtler but more dangerous shift is underway in the bond and currency markets.

The 10-year Treasury yield swung sharply during the session, briefly touching 4.22% intraday before settling back near 4.13% to 4.15%, as oil’s retreat alleviated some of the stagflation premium. The Washington Post

The word stagflation is one that investors feared throughout 2025 and had hoped was fading. It is now firmly back in the conversation. The war is simultaneously pushing inflation higher through energy costs while threatening to slow economic growth through disrupted trade and shattered business confidence.

The Federal Reserve’s rate-cut trajectory remains under intense scrutiny, with markets now pricing just one 25-basis-point reduction in 2026, likely in September, down from two cuts expected before the conflict began. The Washington Post That repricing matters enormously for everything from mortgage rates to business investment to government borrowing costs across the developing world.

Asia Bleeds Red

The damage is not limited to Western markets. Asia has absorbed the shock of this conflict with particularly brutal force.

Four of the nine major global indexes posted year-to-date gains through March 9, 2026. Japan’s Nikkei 225 sits at the top with a year-to-date gain of 4.8%, while Canada’s TSX follows in second with a gain of 4.7%. China’s Shanghai Composite holds third with a 3.2% gain. NPR

But the losers tell a harsher story. India’s BSE SENSEX is the index with the largest year-to-date loss at negative 9.0%, followed by Germany’s DAXK and France’s CAC 40 with year-to-date losses at negative 4.7% and negative 2.9% respectively. NPR

India’s exposure runs deep. The country is one of the world’s largest importers of crude oil, and a sustained period of high prices strikes directly at its current account, its inflation rate, and its fiscal position simultaneously.

Thailand’s SET Index closed at 1,405.76 points, rising 22.79 points or 1.65%, as the market rebounded alongside regional trends due to temporarily subsided concerns over the Middle East situation and the decline in global oil prices. NPR The qualifier “temporarily” carries enormous weight. Analysts in Bangkok cautioned that the rally was fragile and recommended investors continue monitoring the situation closely.

Europe Cracks Under Pressure

The eurozone is navigating its own version of this crisis, and the diagnosis is not encouraging.

Germany posted a double miss on factory orders and industrial production, while the Sentix business confidence index collapsed sharply, confirming that business confidence has cracked under war risk. Markets are increasingly pricing in a more cautious European Central Bank posture, given that oil-driven inflation may complicate any further easing this cycle. The Washington Post

French Treasury bill auctions cleared at elevated rates, with the 12-month bill printing 2.339% versus 2.097% prior, reflecting a modest repricing of short-term sovereign risk. The Washington Post In plain terms, investors are demanding a higher return to lend money to the French government than they were just weeks ago. Multiply that dynamic across dozens of sovereign borrowers and the cost of this war to public finances becomes staggering.

The Technology Bright Spot

One corner of the global market has remained relatively resilient through the chaos. TSMC reported 30% sales growth in the latest period, driven by robust AI demand PBS — a reminder that the technology sector’s structural growth story is still intact, even as everything around it burns.

Artificial intelligence investment continues to flow regardless of geopolitical conditions. But even here, investors are watching carefully. Oracle’s Tuesday earnings report has become one of the week’s most closely followed data points, as markets look for evidence that corporate AI spending plans remain firm when every other line item in global business budgets is being questioned.

What Comes Next

Investors are focused on Wednesday’s February CPI report and Friday’s PCE price index as the week’s dominant macro catalysts. A 10-year Treasury note auction on Wednesday will also test demand for US debt amid elevated inflation fears. The Washington Post

The readings will offer a first clear look at how deeply energy prices have fed through into the broader inflation picture. A surprise to the upside would almost certainly kill any remaining hope of a 2026 rate cut, with all the consequences that carries for indebted governments, struggling businesses, and ordinary families managing mortgages and household budgets around the world.

GAM Investments portfolio manager Paul Markham delivered perhaps the most honest assessment of the current moment when he told Bloomberg bluntly: “The idea that this will be a sustained rally from here, for me is quite difficult to believe.” NPR

That sentiment is broadly shared. The oil market had its wildest session in history. Wall Street pulled off a miraculous late recovery. Asia is bruised. Europe is stalling. And the world is still waiting, with no clear timeline, for the conflict that started all of this to finally end.

Until it does, every market on earth will keep opening each day holding its breath.